Feature · Revenue forecast
Weight every customer by their current churn risk. Project MRR three months out in best, expected, and worst-case scenarios, with the assumptions visible. The forecast you take to a board meeting is the forecast that materializes.
What it is
Most SaaS revenue forecasts use historical retention rates as a proxy for the next quarter's outcome: last year you held 92% gross retention, so this year you'll hold 92%. The math works right up until something changes (a product launch, a competitor move, an enterprise customer's exec rotation) and the forecast starts missing by 4–6 percentage points. Boards lose confidence. The CFO loses sleep.
Exeechain's revenue forecast pivots the math: instead of projecting from history, it projects from current state. Every customer is weighted by their current churn risk; the projection is the expected MRR retained, expanded, and downgraded, in best, expected, and worst-case scenarios. When a customer's health score moves, the forecast moves. The numbers stay current.
How it works
Step 01
The forecast pulls current MRR, every customer's latest churn score, the expansion pipeline, and the save plans already in motion, straight from your connected billing and CRM data. No spreadsheet exports, no stale inputs.
Step 02
Each customer's projected revenue uses their current churn risk as the leading indicator. High-risk MRR is discounted hardest, medium-risk modestly, and active save plans lift the expected case. The assumptions are listed next to the number.
Step 03
The forecast surfaces best, expected, and worst-case MRR for each of the next three months, plus the with-action vs no-action gap. Drill into the at-risk dollars to see the customers driving the number, and click through to their save-playbook drafts.
Why it matters for NRR
When the quarterly forecast lands within ±2 points of actual, the CS function earns operating credibility. Hiring requests, budget asks, and strategy decisions move faster.
Risk-weighted forecasting surfaces which specific customers are driving the at-risk dollars. CSM time goes to the accounts that actually move the number.
When the forecast says Q4 will miss by $400K, the team has 90 days to act. When it says Q4 already missed by $400K, you write the post-mortem.
Related features
Churn prediction
0–100 score, daily refresh, ranked by revenue
Customer health score
AI score with the three drivers explained
QBR automation
A quarter's deck, in about a minute
Workflow automation
Custom journeys with goals, A/B splits, approval gates
Retention playbooks
3 prebuilt, plus your own - AI-drafted per customer
Copilot
Plain-English Q&A grounded in your data
Questions
Start from the cohort paying today, then time each account's revenue to its actual renewal date: churn risk at the renewal, downgrade risk, and expansion signals. Exeechain builds the forecast that way rather than as a flat monthly churn rate, so the number moves when a renewal is near and an account is at risk, and stays put when the risk is nine months away.
Gross retention counts only losses, cancellations and downgrades, against the starting cohort and cannot exceed 100%. Net retention adds expansion back and can. The forecast shows both, because high net retention with low gross retention means a few expanding accounts are hiding a leak.
Revenue on a subscription whose card has failed is counted as at risk now, not at the next renewal, because the loss is already in progress. It sits in its own lane so it is never double-counted with renewal risk.
Yes. Every forecast is recorded with its predicted figure, and once the period passes the actual figure is filled in and scored against it, so the accuracy of the forecast on your own book is a number you can read rather than a claim.
Above 110% is good for mid-market and enterprise SaaS and above 100% for SMB; the net revenue retention guide on the blog covers the definition and the benchmarks. The forecast reports your own figure on your own cohort.
First scores in 15 minutes. Every connected signal read within 24 hours. From $299/mo. The revenue forecast is on every paid plan.
Not ready to switch? Size your leak from your MRR and churn rate, with no billing access at all.