Feature · Revenue forecast
Group customers by renewal quarter. Weight each by their current health score. Project gross retention, net retention, and downgrade risk for the next four quarters — with the assumptions visible. The forecast you take to a board meeting is the forecast that materializes.
What it is
Most SaaS revenue forecasts use historical retention rates as a proxy for the next quarter's outcome — last year you held 92% gross retention, so this year you'll hold 92%. The math works right up until something changes (a product launch, a competitor move, an enterprise customer's exec rotation) and the forecast starts missing by 4-6 percentage points. Boards lose confidence. The CFO loses sleep.
Exeechain's revenue forecast pivots the math: instead of projecting from history, it projects from current state. Customers are grouped by renewal quarter; each cohort is weighted by the current health-score distribution; the projection is the expected MRR retained, expanded, and downgraded — with confidence bands. When a customer's health score moves, the forecast moves. The numbers stay current.
How it works
Step 01
Customers cluster into renewal cohorts — Q3, Q4, Q1, Q2 — automatically from billing data. Each cohort shows total ARR at risk, customer count, average ACV, and the health score distribution within the cohort.
Step 02
Each customer's renewal probability uses their current health score as the leading indicator. A 90+ score implies near-certain renewal; a sub-50 score implies 40-60% likelihood. Confidence bands surface the range, not just the point estimate.
Step 03
The forecast surfaces gross revenue retention, net revenue retention (including expansion), and the dollar-weighted downgrade risk for each cohort. Drill into any cohort to see the customers driving the number — and click through to their save-playbook drafts.
Why it matters for NRR
When the quarterly forecast lands within ±2 points of actual, the CS function earns operating credibility. Hiring requests, budget asks, and strategy decisions move faster.
Cohort-weighted forecasting surfaces which specific customers are driving the at-risk dollars. CSM time goes to the accounts that actually move the number.
When the forecast says Q4 will miss by $400K, the team has 90 days to act. When it says Q4 already missed by $400K, you write the post-mortem.
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Live in fifteen minutes. From $299/mo. Renewal-cohort forecasting on Revenue Multiplier and above.